2025 Outlook

The outlook for 2025 has coffee prices on the rise. We are still seeing issues in the Red Sea that impacts shipping costs and creates delays. The longer it takes for coffee to ship, the more quality control issues that are created. Large batch roasters can sometimes overlook these quality issues; however, home roasters are more sensitive to these issues. Exposure to pests and poor storage are more notable to home roasters who are roasting on a smaller scale and may not roast their coffee as quickly after purchase. 

We are also seeing coffee pricing on the rise. Cepea, a Brazilian research firm, has reported that coffee farmers in Brazil are delaying coffee sales as they hold out for higher prices. Additionally Sucden Financial stated that Vietnamese coffee farmers are also waiting for better prices. 

Additional factors impacting the 2025 outlook.

• Below-normal rainfall in Brazil. Minas Gerais has received only 53% of the historical average.
• Outlook for a smaller coffee crop in Brazil. This is the 5th consecutive year for deficits from Brazil.
• 2024 had a dry year due to El Nino. This is expected to lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Brazil and Colombia experienced El Nino caused droughts in 2024.
• Robusta coffees were also impacted by drought in 2023 and 2024. 
• Our partners are stating that standards for maintaining certifications such as organic, fair trade and bird friendly have created a premium for their coffee so they can retain those certifications. We are seeing a sharp increase for coffees with these certifications. 

We are often asked about our Felucca Blend. It is a favorite here at The Coffee Project and has been missing from our offerings for awhile now. This is due largely to the issues with shipments coming through the Red Sea and not being able to get a consistent and similar flavor profile. 

This is a similar issue with our Girlfren Decaf offering. We've had issues cupping after it returns from being decaffeinated.